Archive:Leaguepedia Articles/Season 3 North American LCS Super Week Preview
|Season 3 North American LCS Super Week Preview|
It's a mess.
Let's be honest, the North American LCS standings are a mess. Currently, there are no 4th, 5th, or 7th place teams. Instead, three teams sit at 11-12 and two teams at 9-14. Some teams who have consistently beaten higher ranked teams still sit behind those teams in the standings. What does this all mean?
It means it's a mess, and from the looks of it, it's not going to get much better after this week. Let's take a look at the teams participating in Super Week who aren't named Cloud 9.
Going into Week 9, the standings are Team Vulcun in 2nd place, with Counter Logic Gaming, Team Dignitas, and Team SoloMid sharing 3rd place. Sixth place is held by both Team Coast and Team Curse, and Velocity eSports makes the caboose.
Can, or will, Vulcun drop four or five matches to open up 2nd place for TSM? We'll discuss why I singled out TSM in their section, but the answer is no, Vulcun is not in danger of relinquishing 2nd place. Here are their two key matches for this week.
Cloud 9 holds a 2-1 record over Vulcun, but it was almost the other way around. Vulcun dropped a massive gold and kill lead in Week 5, allowing Cloud 9 to play for the late game and win. If Vulcun can create and continue to exploit a similar lead, Cloud 9 will take a loss.
That being said, Vulcun will most likely drop against Team SoloMid. A Xin Zhao/Annie kill lane attempt backfired (played by Wild Turtle and Xpecial, respectively) practically gave Vulcun a free win. If TSM has played it straight, they'd be 3-0 against Vulcun.
Wins Against: Cloud 9, Dignitas, Team Coast, and Velocity eSports
Loses Against: Team SoloMid
Predicted Record After Super Week: 19W-9L
CLG has one of the most difficult schedules this Super Week, which doesn't bode well for their history of inconsistency. They face Coast, then Cloud 9, Velocity, and Curse, with Dignitas being their fifth match. Even though CLG took a game off of Cloud 9 early in the season, they looked outmatched in two convincing losses. Doublelift has been able to hold his own with an overall 12/7/15 KDA against Cloud 9, but he can't carry everyone.
What about Coast? Velocity? Curse? How big of a threat can they pose when CLG is ranked higher than them?
CLG's contests with Coast have not been pretty. The KDA spread overall is nearly double at 64/32/167 to 32/64/86 in Coast's favor. Additionally, they only have one win against Curse and Velocity each, two teams that have struggled this season. CLG may have made some changes since the Spring split, but their unfortunate unpredictability remains.
Wins Against: Dignitas
Loses Against: Team Coast, Cloud 9, Velocity eSports, and Team Curse
Predicted Record After Super Week: 12W-16L
Team Dignitas also faces stiff competition this week. Of their five matchups, Dignitas has a winning record against one team (3-0 against Velocity). Given Velocity's lack of success, this doesn't say much.
No wins against Vulcun and Cloud 9 means they haven't been able to crack the top two teams, and it doesn't seem likely anything has changed there. Dignitas wasn't able to take a win off of Curse until their third meeting in Week 7 when they confused Curse with Patoy on Fiddlesticks and KiWiKid on Aatrox. If they keep it unconventional, they may eek out a win, but it's doubtful Curse will fall to the same tricks twice.
Even CLG poses problems for Dignitas. With only one win against the “inconsistency kings,” it's difficult to see Dignitas getting a positive record overall this Super Week.
Wins Against: Velocity eSports
Loses Against: Team Curse, Team Vulcun, Cloud 9, Counter Logic Gaming
Predicted Record After Super Week: 12W-16L
Rounding out the 3rd place teams is Team SoloMid, and they are positioned perfectly for a big Super Week. Their schedule looks decidedly easier than CLG's and Dignitas', if only for the way it's structured. TSM' s slate of opponents is comparable to an old school video game where each level gets tougher before reaching the final boss.
First up is Velocity and Coast. Neither team has produced much against TSM, making these matches more like tutorial levels. Next, it's Curse and Vulcun, both of whom have taken a game from TSM. However, TSM should be riding high on two victories, and not enough can be said about the impact of momentum. TSM should be 4-0 on the week before facing off with Cloud 9.
Can they do it? Can they beat Cloud 9? Perhaps the better question is, does it matter? In the scenarios predicted here, TSM can get no better than 3rd place. A win against Cloud 9 doesn't change that, but it can help TSM expose any weaknesses Cloud 9 may have. There are a lot of things that TSM can focus on to help take down Cloud 9, but honestly, it's as simple as shutting down Sneaky. And Balls. And Meteos ...
On second thought, TSM may need to insert coins and hit the “Continue” button on this match.
Wins Against: Velocity eSports, Team Coast, Team Curse, Team Vulcun
Loses Against: Cloud 9
Predicted Record After Super Week: 15W-12L
Is anyone afraid of Curse anymore? Does everyone agree the worst move they made was letting Elementz walk? Their record since his departure (including their two losses in the Spring Playoffs) is a measely 11-14. The addition of Edward hasn't exactly had the impact they were hoping for. On top of all of that, Curse comes into Super Week on a four game losing streak.
Something hasn't clicked with Curse, and it's difficult to see the switch suddenly turning on for Super Week, but it could happen.
Can they take a game off of Dignitas? Probably. Currently Curse holds a 2-1 record against Dignitas. On paper, they won those matches pretty decidedly. It wasn't until their third meeting that Curse lost, but that was against a well organized Dignitas where KiWiKid finally made some contributions to the team with a 5/1/8 Aatrox. Overall, Curse still holds the edge.
Cop is too good against Velocity with a 26/8/18 KDA, so don't expect Curse to drop that one.
Curse's first match agaisnt CLG turned into an extended slugfest. CLG ended up taking that one after a risky Baron attempt, but Curse has taken the last two against their old rivals. Curse holds the momentum coming in, and will pick up their third win of the Super Week against CLG.
Wins Against: Dignitas, Velocity eSports, Counter Logic Gaming
Loses Against: Team SoloMid, Team Coast
Predicted Record After Super Week: 12W-16L
Coast is an easy team to root for. The proverbial underdogs once again this Super Week, they have the potential to jump into the playoffs, just as they did in the Spring Split. Looking at the schedule, however, shows a steep uphill battle. Whereas CLG plays inconsistent, Coast have been consistently losing, making it difficult to see them making the playoffs.
Coast has had CLG's number all season, so them sweeping the series at 4-0 shouldn't be a surprise. On the flip side, TSM has wrecked Coast in every game. Dyrus in particular has made a massive impact by having no deaths in two of those meetings. It won't be a pretty game for Coast.
Zuna and company have taken the last two matches against Coast, and will probably take a third. The powerhouse of Cloud 9 could underestimate Coast, and we may see some wild picks to throw Cloud 9 off their game, but it's not likely that we'll see a win for Coast here, either. Coast does possess a 1-2 record against Curse, and we may have a match on our hands. Though it would'nt end up meaning much in the standings, a team playing for pride is a dangerous prospect. We expect to see Coast pick up a final win before heading to relegation, ruining Curse's chances at sole possession of fourth place in the process.
Wins Against: Counter Logic Gaming, Team Curse
Loses Against: Team SoloMid, Team Vulcun, Cloud 9
Predicted Record After Super Week: 11W-17L
Unfortunately, the only game that Velocity can have an impact on is CLG. They had one win in the first Super Week, and guess who that was against? You guessed it: CLG. Maplestreet holds an impressive 19/3/16 KDA across three games against CLG, so watch for him to have another great game.
Velocity will go 1-4 this week with a win against CLG, make a poetic exit heading into relegation. Beyond this one game, it's unlikely that Velocity would be adding any additional numbers to their win column.
Wins Against: Counter Logic Gaming
Loses Against: Team SoloMid, Team Curse, Dignitas, Team Vulcun
Predicted Record After Super Week: 6W-22L