Archive:Leaguepedia Articles/Snowballing in the Group Stages of the S3 World Championship

From Leaguepedia | League of Legends Esports Wiki
Jump to: navigation, search
Snowballing in the Group Stages of the S3 World Championship


I wanted to a follow up to the popular snowballing in competitive play article. So we are going to look at the first half of group stage so far and how these international teams have clashed on the snowballing side.

Overall, in the group stage so far there has been a distinct lack of comebacks. Gold lead at 25 minutes and first inhibitor both have 100% win rates, as no team has ever come back from such a disadvantage yet. The two biggest comebacks we’ve seen have been Vulcun vs SSO and SKT T1 vs Lemondogs, which have both only been mid-game comebacks. Even gold lead at 15 minutes is extremely hard to come back from for teams, having 90% of teams who have even a gold lead of 100g go on to win. Despite the very close and intense matches (especially of group B), these numbers are very telling so far in the group stages.


The next thing I wanted to cover is what happens when a team gets not just one first objective, but 2 or more. I thought it was interesting to see that after claiming 2 first objectives, no matter which they were, boosted the win rate to about 80%! I also wanted to present how often a team gets 2 objectives, so that is represented by the “17 games” inside the bars. Since this is out of 20 total games you can see how often these situations arise (85% of games the team who gets FB also gets first tower).


The third snowballing effect I wanted to look at was gold lead at various times in game. This lead can be anything from 100g to 10000g (ties were excluded). But it still presents an interesting pattern and interesting individual data. We have never seen a comeback from a gold lead at 25 minutes and even 15 minutes in 90% of the games go to the team with the gold lead. The two exceptions to this 15 min advantage was the comeback of SSO against Vulcun on day one, and the comeback of SKT T1 against Lemondogs. Some other possibly interesting data is that 80% of the teams who have the gold lead at 8 min go on to keep it at 10 min. 90% of teams who have it at 10 minutes go on to keep it at 15 min, and 90% of teams who have it at 15 minutes go on to keep it by 25 minutes.


The last chart has to do with the difference between this data when including Mineski and games. These teams have been unfortunately mismatched in the WC. I wanted to present the snowball data with and without these teams as their games can somewhat skew the data. Without these teams you can see that the matches are a bit closer fought, but there is still an prominent advantage for teams who get things like first dragon or first blood. Without these 2 teams the sample size went down from 20 games to 12 games though, which is why I wanted to keep them in for the original graph at the top. MNK TSM LD SSO VUL SKT FNC GMB OMG
First Blood 0% 25% 25% 75% 50% 75% 50% 50% 50% 100%
First Tower 25% 0% 75% 50% 100% 75% 25% 25% 50% 75%
First Dragon 0% 0% 50% 75% 25% 75% 25% 75% 75% 100%
8 Minute Gold Lead 0% 0% 25% 100% 25% 75% 25% 50% 75% 75%

The last thing I wanted to cover on this article was the individual teams and the % of games they got the first dragon, first blood, first tower, or gold lead at 8 minutes. I just thought some people might be curious about it so I included this. I don’t think the data is very telling though, as most teams have only played 4 games, but we can see how it develops in the future, and it was interesting that Mineski / have such low percentages.

Written by Spellsy - @SpellsyLoL
Graphics provided by Eric “Vesca Violette” Womack - @VescaViolette
Gold Stats by @3leven

<comments />

Click Here to return to the Articles Index.